{
  "date": "2026-11-03",
  "value": 8.33,
  "horizons": {
    "century": 10.4,
    "y30": 8.33,
    "y10": 3.25,
    "y1": 0.049
  },
  "shares": {
    "y30": 0.8,
    "y10": 0.313,
    "y1": 0.005
  },
  "agi": {
    "median_year": 2032.4,
    "p90_year": 2059.9,
    "market": {
      "median_year": 2029.9,
      "p90_year": 2050.5,
      "n": 6,
      "weight": 0.3
    }
  },
  "baseline": 10.19,
  "news": 0.21,
  "categories": {
    "survey": {
      "value": 5.48,
      "n": 7
    },
    "forecast": {
      "value": 8.48,
      "n": 6
    },
    "expert": {
      "value": 22.56,
      "n": 12
    }
  },
  "mainHorizon": "y30",
  "change": 0.08,
  "changes": {
    "century": 0.07,
    "y30": 0.08,
    "y10": 0.05,
    "y1": 0.003
  },
  "previousDate": "2026-11-02",
  "oneIn": 12,
  "todayEvents": [
    {
      "id": "2026-11-03-anthropic-s1-rsi-risk-factor",
      "category": "capabilities",
      "delta": 0.1,
      "title_en": "Anthropic's amended S-1 says it may soon meet its RSI threshold",
      "title_ja": "Anthropic、修正S-1で自己改善の閾値に近づく可能性を明記",
      "summary_en": "In a revised S-1/A, Anthropic says its internal estimates suggest future models may meet its Responsible Scaling Policy threshold for AI-driven R&D acceleration. It has not designated any current model as crossing it, says it plans to keep humans in the loop, and is considering policy updates.",
      "summary_ja": "Anthropicは修正S-1/Aで、社内の見積もりから将来のモデルが責任あるスケーリング方針のAI主導の研究開発加速の閾値に達しうると記した。現行モデルは閾値超えとしておらず、人間の関与を保つ方針で、方針更新も検討中。",
      "source": "TechCrunch",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/11/02/anthropic-warns-that-its-very-close-to-rsi-capability-aka-self-building-ai/",
      "effect": 0.08,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261102222129/https://techcrunch.com/2026/11/02/anthropic-warns-that-its-very-close-to-rsi-capability-aka-self-building-ai/?"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-11-03-anthropic-provable-inference",
      "category": "research",
      "delta": -0.05,
      "title_en": "Anthropic releases open-source prototype for provable inference",
      "title_ja": "Anthropic、推論の証明可能性を示すオープンソース試作を公開",
      "summary_en": "Anthropic's Frontier Red Team and academic collaborators released FlashProve, which uses zero-knowledge proofs to show a response came from committed model weights. It is a research prototype with stated limits, but could support future verification and compliance checks.",
      "summary_ja": "AnthropicのFrontier Red Teamと大学の共同研究者が、ゼロ知識証明で応答が特定のモデル重みから生成されたことを示すFlashProveを公開。研究段階で制約は明記されているが、将来の検証・順守確認に役立つ可能性がある。",
      "source": "Anthropic",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/research/provable-inference",
      "effect": -0.04,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261103124549/https://www.anthropic.com/research/provable-inference"
      }
    }
  ],
  "headline": {
    "text_en": "Anthropic's amended IPO filing says it may soon cross its own self-improvement threshold; a small verification tool lands.",
    "text_ja": "Anthropicの修正S-1が「自社の自己改善しきい値に近づく可能性」に言及。検証技術の小さな進展も。"
  },
  "recentEvents": [
    {
      "id": "2026-11-03-anthropic-s1-rsi-risk-factor",
      "category": "capabilities",
      "delta": 0.1,
      "title_en": "Anthropic's amended S-1 says it may soon meet its RSI threshold",
      "title_ja": "Anthropic、修正S-1で自己改善の閾値に近づく可能性を明記",
      "summary_en": "In a revised S-1/A, Anthropic says its internal estimates suggest future models may meet its Responsible Scaling Policy threshold for AI-driven R&D acceleration. It has not designated any current model as crossing it, says it plans to keep humans in the loop, and is considering policy updates.",
      "summary_ja": "Anthropicは修正S-1/Aで、社内の見積もりから将来のモデルが責任あるスケーリング方針のAI主導の研究開発加速の閾値に達しうると記した。現行モデルは閾値超えとしておらず、人間の関与を保つ方針で、方針更新も検討中。",
      "source": "TechCrunch",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/11/02/anthropic-warns-that-its-very-close-to-rsi-capability-aka-self-building-ai/",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "effect": 0.08,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261102222129/https://techcrunch.com/2026/11/02/anthropic-warns-that-its-very-close-to-rsi-capability-aka-self-building-ai/?"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-11-03-anthropic-provable-inference",
      "category": "research",
      "delta": -0.05,
      "title_en": "Anthropic releases open-source prototype for provable inference",
      "title_ja": "Anthropic、推論の証明可能性を示すオープンソース試作を公開",
      "summary_en": "Anthropic's Frontier Red Team and academic collaborators released FlashProve, which uses zero-knowledge proofs to show a response came from committed model weights. It is a research prototype with stated limits, but could support future verification and compliance checks.",
      "summary_ja": "AnthropicのFrontier Red Teamと大学の共同研究者が、ゼロ知識証明で応答が特定のモデル重みから生成されたことを示すFlashProveを公開。研究段階で制約は明記されているが、将来の検証・順守確認に役立つ可能性がある。",
      "source": "Anthropic",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/research/provable-inference",
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "effect": -0.04,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261103124549/https://www.anthropic.com/research/provable-inference"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-30-gemini-4-carbon",
      "category": "capabilities",
      "delta": 0.2,
      "title_en": "Google's Gemini 4 Carbon tops rankings with strong cyber-offense scores",
      "title_ja": "Google「Gemini 4 Carbon」、脆弱性発見・悪用で高スコア",
      "summary_en": "Google's new frontier model ranks first on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and, by Google's own figures, scores 54.8% on an exploitation benchmark and runs agentic tasks for days. Access starts with vetted cyber defenders and it is in US government pre-release testing, but it marks another jump in dangerous dual-use capability.",
      "summary_ja": "Googleの新フロンティアモデルが総合指標で首位。同社発表では脆弱性の悪用テストで54.8%、数日がかりの自律作業も可能。提供は防御側の一部から段階的で米政府の事前テストにも参加するが、危険な両用能力の上昇を示す。",
      "source": "Google",
      "url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/introducing-gemini-4-carbon/",
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "effect": 0.16,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261030001810/https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/introducing-gemini-4-carbon/"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-30-mistral-large-4-open-weights",
      "category": "capabilities",
      "delta": 0.1,
      "title_en": "Mistral releases open weights for trillion-parameter cyber model",
      "title_ja": "Mistral、1兆パラメータのサイバー向けモデルを重み公開",
      "summary_en": "Mistral published the weights of Large 4 on Hugging Face, pitching it for cyber defense and claiming parity with the leading open model for cyber work. Openly released weights cannot be recalled or gated, so strong cyber capability spreads to anyone, including attackers.",
      "summary_ja": "MistralがLarge 4の重みをHugging Faceで公開し、サイバー防御向けと説明。公開された重みは回収や利用制限ができず、高いサイバー能力が攻撃者も含め誰でも使える状態になる。",
      "source": "TechCrunch",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/29/mistral-releases-weights-for-its-trillion-parameter-ai-model-targeting-cybersecurity/",
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "effect": 0.08,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261030140900/https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/29/mistral-releases-weights-for-its-trillion-parameter-ai-model-targeting-cybersecurity/?"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "2026-10-30-openai-misalignment-monitoring",
      "category": "safety",
      "delta": -0.1,
      "title_en": "OpenAI expands misalignment monitoring to all frontier training runs",
      "title_ja": "OpenAI、全フロンティア学習に不整合監視を拡大",
      "summary_en": "OpenAI says it now monitors every RL run and evaluation for its most capable models, plus all internal Codex use, and that the system caught a model reaching the live internet during training in September within 15 minutes. In a replay of the Hugging Face breach, monitors alerted about 30 minutes after the sandbox escape, over 30 hours before the breach.",
      "summary_ja": "OpenAIは最上位モデルの全強化学習・評価と社内Codex利用を監視対象にしたと発表。9月に学習中のモデルが外部ネットに接続した件を15分で検知し、Hugging Face侵害の再現でも脱出約30分後に警告できたとしている。",
      "source": "Unite.AI",
      "url": "https://www.unite.ai/openai-expands-monitoring-to-detect-frontier-model-misalignment/",
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "effect": -0.08,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261101055433/https://www.unite.ai/openai-expands-monitoring-to-detect-frontier-model-misalignment/"
      }
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "century": 9.9,
      "y30": 7.6,
      "y10": 2.7,
      "y1": 0.025,
      "value": 7.6,
      "baseline": 9.7,
      "news": 0.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "century": 9.9,
      "y30": 7.6,
      "y10": 2.7,
      "y1": 0.025,
      "value": 7.6,
      "baseline": 9.7,
      "news": 0.2
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "century": 10.34,
      "y30": 8.26,
      "y10": 3.23,
      "y1": 0.049,
      "value": 8.26,
      "baseline": 10.16,
      "news": 0.18
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-02",
      "century": 10.33,
      "y30": 8.25,
      "y10": 3.2,
      "y1": 0.046,
      "value": 8.25,
      "baseline": 10.16,
      "news": 0.17
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "century": 10.4,
      "y30": 8.33,
      "y10": 3.25,
      "y1": 0.049,
      "value": 8.33,
      "baseline": 10.19,
      "news": 0.21
    }
  ],
  "timing": {
    "updated": "2026-10-31",
    "century_year": 2100,
    "delay_years": 10,
    "agi": {
      "median_year": 2034,
      "p90_year": 2065,
      "note_en": "A blend of the forecasts below: Metaculus ~2033, AI researchers 2042, Manifold ~2030, AI Futures Project 2028-2032. The 90% year follows Metaculus' wide tail.",
      "note_ja": "下の予測の中間をとった値。Metaculus 約2033年、AI研究者 2042年、Manifold 約2030年、AI Futures Project 2028〜2032年。90%点は Metaculus の幅広い見通しに合わせた。",
      "live": {
        "weight": 0.3,
        "note_en": "30% of the AGI timing comes from a daily fit to these markets, so the 30/10/1-year split moves with them.",
        "note_ja": "AGIの到来時期の3割は、これらの市場への毎日のあてはめで決まる（30年・10年・1年の配分が毎日動く）。",
        "markets": [
          {
            "id": "will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace",
            "provider": "manifold",
            "year": 2027,
            "value": 0.033,
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace",
            "link": {
              "status": "ok",
              "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260904182205/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace"
            }
          },
          {
            "id": "will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346",
            "provider": "manifold",
            "year": 2028,
            "value": 0.27,
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346",
            "link": {
              "status": "ok",
              "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260903190012/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346"
            }
          },
          {
            "id": "will-we-get-agi-before-july-2029",
            "provider": "manifold",
            "year": 2029.5,
            "value": 0.496,
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2029",
            "link": {
              "status": "ok",
              "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260315074817/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2029"
            }
          },
          {
            "id": "will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
            "provider": "manifold",
            "year": 2030,
            "value": 0.505,
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
            "link": {
              "status": "ok",
              "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260903185755/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030"
            }
          },
          {
            "id": "will-we-get-agi-before-2032",
            "provider": "manifold",
            "year": 2032,
            "value": 0.62,
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032",
            "link": {
              "status": "ok",
              "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261101162944/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032"
            }
          },
          {
            "id": "will-we-get-agi-before-2048",
            "provider": "manifold",
            "year": 2048,
            "value": 0.885,
            "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048",
            "link": {
              "status": "ok",
              "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260903190000/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048"
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "metaculus-5121",
          "label_en": "Metaculus: first general AI (median ~2033)",
          "label_ja": "Metaculus：最初の汎用AI（中央値 約2033年）",
          "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/",
          "date": "2026-08",
          "confidence": "low",
          "note": "Metaculus pages returned 403; value from secondary reports (Jul-Aug 2026). 80% interval roughly 2026-2067.",
          "link": {
            "status": "blocked",
            "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260604002815/https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "espai-2024-hlmi",
          "label_en": "AI Impacts survey 2024: human-level AI (50% by 2042)",
          "label_ja": "AI Impacts 研究者調査 2024：人間レベルのAI（2042年で50%）",
          "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ESPAI2024.pdf",
          "date": "2026-09",
          "confidence": "high",
          "note": "1,580 researchers, fielded Dec 2024. 10% by 2027.",
          "link": {
            "status": "ok",
            "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261021221249/https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ESPAI2024.pdf"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "manifold-agi-2030",
          "label_en": "Manifold: AGI before 2030 (52%)",
          "label_ja": "Manifold：2030年までにAGI（52%）",
          "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030",
          "date": "2026-10",
          "confidence": "medium",
          "note": "321 holders.",
          "link": {
            "status": "ok",
            "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260903185755/https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030"
          }
        },
        {
          "id": "aifp-2026-08",
          "label_en": "AI Futures Project timelines update (Aug 2026)",
          "label_ja": "AI Futures Project の見通し更新（2026年8月）",
          "url": "https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q25-2026-timelines-update-uplift",
          "date": "2026-08",
          "confidence": "high",
          "note": "Top-expert-dominating AI: Kokotajlo p50 Nov 2028, Lifland p50 Jul 2032.",
          "link": {
            "status": "ok",
            "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261022203613/https://blog.aifutures.org/p/q25-2026-timelines-update-uplift"
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "cross_checks": [
      {
        "id": "futuresearch-2026-09",
        "label_en": "FutureSearch: AI extinction or irreversible collapse — 2% by 2035, 5% by 2050, 8% by 2100",
        "label_ja": "FutureSearch：AIによる絶滅または不可逆な文明崩壊 — 2035年までに2%、2050年までに5%、2100年までに8%",
        "url": "https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-or-an",
        "date": "2026-09",
        "note": "Implies ~25% of century risk by 2035 and ~62% by 2050. Narrower definition (excludes non-lethal disempowerment).",
        "link": {
          "status": "ok",
          "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261030161030/https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-or-an"
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "metaculus-ai-95pct-implied",
      "category": "forecast",
      "label_en": "Metaculus community (implied)",
      "label_ja": "Metaculus コミュニティ（合成値）",
      "value": 0.042,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2026-09",
      "url": "https://metaculus.substack.com/p/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-forecasts-pro-forecasters",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "AI kills ≥95% of humanity by 2100 = Q1493 × Q1495 × Q2513 (0.40 × 0.35 × 0.30), as computed by Metaculus.",
      "note_ja": "2100年までにAIで人類の95%以上が死亡する確率 = Q1493×Q1495×Q2513（Metaculus自身の計算）。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260930163401/https://metaculus.substack.com/p/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-forecasts-pro-forecasters"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "metaculus-578-pros",
      "category": "forecast",
      "label_en": "Metaculus Pro Forecasters",
      "label_ja": "Metaculus プロ予測者",
      "value": 0.075,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2026-09",
      "url": "https://metaculus.substack.com/p/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-forecasts-pro-forecasters",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "Human extinction by 2100 from all causes (31 pros). Not AI-only, so treated as a rough upper anchor.",
      "note_ja": "2100年までの人類絶滅（原因を問わない、プロ31人）。AI限定ではないため目安として扱う。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260930163401/https://metaculus.substack.com/p/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-forecasts-pro-forecasters"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "futuresearch-2026-09",
      "category": "forecast",
      "label_en": "FutureSearch forecast",
      "label_ja": "FutureSearch の予測",
      "value": 0.08,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2026-09",
      "url": "https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-or-an",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "AI-caused extinction or irreversible collapse of civilisation by 2100 (2% by 2035, 5% by 2050). Excludes non-lethal disempowerment, so narrower than our definition.",
      "note_ja": "2100年までにAIによる絶滅または不可逆な文明崩壊（2035年までに2%、2050年までに5%）。致死的でない無力化は含まないため、当サイトの定義より狭い。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261030161030/https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-or-an"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "manifold-ai-extinction-2100",
      "category": "forecast",
      "label_en": "Manifold: AI-caused extinction before 2100",
      "label_ja": "Manifold：2100年までにAIが人類を絶滅させるか",
      "value": 0.212,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2026-11",
      "url": "https://manifold.markets/logan/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-befo",
      "confidence": "low",
      "note_en": "Play-money market (1 − 'Will not cause extinction'). Low volume; a YES payout can never be collected, which biases the price.",
      "note_ja": "仮想通貨の予測市場（1 − 「絶滅させない」）。取引量が少なく、YESの払い戻しが受け取れない構造のため価格が歪みやすい。",
      "live": true,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261030161055/https://manifold.markets/logan/will-ai-cause-human-extinction-befo"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "manifold-ai-wipe-2100",
      "category": "forecast",
      "label_en": "Manifold: AI wipes out humanity before 2100",
      "label_ja": "Manifold：2100年までにAIが人類を滅ぼすか",
      "value": 0.138,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2026-11",
      "url": "https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "The largest century-horizon market (about 820 traders). Play money, and a YES payout can never be collected, which may bias the price down.",
      "note_ja": "今世紀を対象にした最大の市場（約820人）。仮想通貨で、YESの払い戻しが受け取れない構造のため、価格は低めに歪む可能性がある。",
      "live": true,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260515111257/https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "manifold-ai-wipe-2030",
      "category": "forecast",
      "label_en": "Manifold: AI wipes out humanity by 2030",
      "label_ja": "Manifold：2030年までにAIが人類を滅ぼすか",
      "value": 0.24,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2030",
      "date": "2026-11",
      "url": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r",
      "confidence": "low",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "note_en": "Most-traded doom market (337 traders), but it resolves N/A in 2027, so it measures sentiment rather than a real bet. Low weight.",
      "note_ja": "最も取引の多い市場（337人）だが、2027年に無効扱いで決着するため、実質は雰囲気の指標。重みを下げている。",
      "live": true,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260920004342/https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "espai-2024-median",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "AI Impacts survey 2024 (median)",
      "label_ja": "AI Impacts 研究者調査 2024（中央値）",
      "value": 0.1,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2026-09",
      "url": "https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/what-did-ai-researchers-think-at",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "1,580 AI researchers; extinction or severe disempowerment. Over half answered ≥10%.",
      "note_ja": "AI研究者1,580人。絶滅または深刻な無力化。半数超が10%以上と回答。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260930172603/https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/what-did-ai-researchers-think-at"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "espai-2024-mean",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "AI Impacts survey 2024 (mean)",
      "label_ja": "AI Impacts 研究者調査 2024（平均）",
      "value": 0.18,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2026-09",
      "url": "https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/what-did-ai-researchers-think-at",
      "confidence": "high",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "note_en": "Same survey, mean answer. Half weight so the survey is not counted twice.",
      "note_ja": "同じ調査の平均値。二重計上を避けるため重みは半分。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260930172603/https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/what-did-ai-researchers-think-at"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "espai-2023-median",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "AI Impacts survey 2023 (median)",
      "label_ja": "AI Impacts 研究者調査 2023（中央値）",
      "value": 0.05,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2024-01",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "2,778 AI researchers (Grace et al.). Mean 16.2%.",
      "note_ja": "AI研究者2,778人（Grace et al.）。平均は16.2%。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261021005419/https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "xpt-experts",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "XPT tournament: domain experts",
      "label_ja": "XPT予測トーナメント：専門家",
      "value": 0.03,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2023-07",
      "url": "https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "AI-caused extinction by 2100, median. Run in 2022, before ChatGPT.",
      "note_ja": "2100年までのAIによる絶滅（中央値）。ChatGPT登場前の2022年に実施。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260429191429/https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "xpt-supers",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "XPT tournament: superforecasters",
      "label_ja": "XPT予測トーナメント：スーパーフォーキャスター",
      "value": 0.0038,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2023-07",
      "url": "https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "AI-caused extinction by 2100, median. Run in 2022, before ChatGPT.",
      "note_ja": "2100年までのAIによる絶滅（中央値）。ChatGPT登場前の2022年に実施。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260429191429/https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ord-precipice",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "Toby Ord, The Precipice",
      "label_ja": "トビー・オード『The Precipice』",
      "value": 0.1,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2020-03",
      "url": "https://theprecipice.com/",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "Existential catastrophe from unaligned AI this century. Reaffirmed in 2023.",
      "note_ja": "今世紀中に、制御されないAIによって存亡の危機が起きる確率。2023年にも同じ値を述べている。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260923105910/https://theprecipice.com/"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-safety-leaders-2026",
      "category": "survey",
      "label_en": "Survey of AI safety leaders",
      "label_ja": "AI安全分野のリーダー調査",
      "value": 0.25,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "2100",
      "date": "2026-02",
      "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LxuKuQd69Qx5FKhNZ/survey-of-ai-safety-leaders-on-x-risk-agi-timelines-and",
      "confidence": "low",
      "note_en": "Extinction or permanent disempowerment by 2100, median (mean 34%). Self-selected safety community.",
      "note_ja": "2100年までの絶滅または恒久的な無力化（中央値。平均34%）。安全性コミュニティ内の調査。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261003195417/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LxuKuQd69Qx5FKhNZ/survey-of-ai-safety-leaders-on-x-risk-agi-timelines-and"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hinton",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Geoffrey Hinton",
      "label_ja": "ジェフリー・ヒントン",
      "value": null,
      "low": 0.1,
      "high": 0.2,
      "horizon": "30 years",
      "date": "2024-12",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/27/godfather-of-ai-raises-odds-of-the-technology-wiping-out-humanity-over-next-30-years",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "Nobel laureate. '10 to 20 percent' chance AI causes extinction within 30 years (BBC Radio 4).",
      "note_ja": "ノーベル賞受賞者。30年以内にAIが人類を絶滅させる確率は「10〜20%」（BBCラジオ）。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": null
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "bengio",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Yoshua Bengio",
      "label_ja": "ヨシュア・ベンジオ",
      "value": 0.2,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-07",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-15/whats-your-pdoom-ai-researchers-worry-catastrophe/102591340",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "Turing Award winner. Reported by ABC News.",
      "note_ja": "チューリング賞受賞者。ABCニュースの報道による。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261020114748/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-15/whats-your-pdoom-ai-researchers-worry-catastrophe/102591340"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "amodei",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO)",
      "label_ja": "ダリオ・アモデイ（Anthropic CEO）",
      "value": 0.25,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2025-09",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "About a 25% chance things go 'really, really badly'. Earlier said 10–25%.",
      "note_ja": "「本当にひどいことになる」確率は約25%。以前は10〜25%と発言。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261013020246/https://www.axios.com/2025/09/17/anthropic-dario-amodei-p-doom-25-percent"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "musk",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Elon Musk",
      "label_ja": "イーロン・マスク",
      "value": null,
      "low": 0.1,
      "high": 0.2,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2024-06",
      "url": "https://deadline.com/2024/06/elon-musk-gives-the-world-10-20-chance-of-something-terrible-happening-with-ai-future-cannes-lions-1235977965",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "'10–20% probability of something terrible happening' (Cannes Lions). Has repeated ~20% since.",
      "note_ja": "「何か恐ろしいことが起きる確率は10〜20%」（カンヌライオンズ）。その後も約20%と繰り返している。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924172436/https://deadline.com/2024/06/elon-musk-gives-the-world-10-20-chance-of-something-terrible-happening-with-ai-future-cannes-lions-1235977965/"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "christiano",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Paul Christiano",
      "label_ja": "ポール・クリスチャーノ",
      "value": 0.22,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-04",
      "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xWMqsvHapP3nwdSW8/my-views-on-doom",
      "confidence": "high",
      "note_en": "22% chance of AI takeover; 46% that humanity irreversibly messes up its future.",
      "note_ja": "AIに支配される確率22%。人類が取り返しのつかない形で未来を損なう確率は46%。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260623021542/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xWMqsvHapP3nwdSW8/my-views-on-doom"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "yudkowsky",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Eliezer Yudkowsky",
      "label_ja": "エリエゼル・ユドコウスキー",
      "value": 0.95,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-07",
      "url": "https://www.fastcompany.com/90994526",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "'>95%' (lower bound). He dislikes the p(doom) framing.",
      "note_ja": "「95%超」（下限として扱う）。本人はp(doom)という言い方を好まない。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": null
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "kokotajlo",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Daniel Kokotajlo (AI Futures Project)",
      "label_ja": "ダニエル・ココタイロ（AI Futures Project）",
      "value": null,
      "low": 0.7,
      "high": 0.8,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2025-04",
      "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htOvH12T7mU",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "70–80%. Lead author of the 'AI 2027' scenario.",
      "note_ja": "70〜80%。シナリオ「AI 2027」の主著者。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261008105413/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htOvH12T7mU"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "hendrycks",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Dan Hendrycks (Center for AI Safety)",
      "label_ja": "ダン・ヘンドリクス（Center for AI Safety）",
      "value": 0.8,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-12",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "'>80%' as reported by The New York Times.",
      "note_ja": "「80%超」（ニューヨーク・タイムズの報道による）。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251030153324/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "lina-khan",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Lina Khan (former FTC chair)",
      "label_ja": "リナ・カーン（元FTC委員長）",
      "value": 0.15,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-11",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "About 15%, said at a NYT 'Hard Fork' live event.",
      "note_ja": "約15%（NYTのポッドキャスト公開収録での発言）。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251030153324/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "buterin",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Vitalik Buterin",
      "label_ja": "ヴィタリック・ブテリン",
      "value": 0.12,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2025-08",
      "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxlcQzvnmWI",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "Ethereum co-founder. Earlier said about 10%.",
      "note_ja": "イーサリアム共同創設者。以前は約10%と発言。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260710163643/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxlcQzvnmWI"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "lecun",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Yann LeCun",
      "label_ja": "ヤン・ルカン",
      "value": 0.0001,
      "low": null,
      "high": null,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2024-04",
      "url": "https://www.techradar.com/pro/top-ai-researcher-says-ai-will-end-humanity-and-we-should-stop-developing-it-now-but-dont-worry-elon-musk-disagrees",
      "confidence": "medium",
      "note_en": "Turing Award winner. '<0.01%', less likely than an asteroid strike.",
      "note_ja": "チューリング賞受賞者。「0.01%未満」、小惑星の衝突より低いとしている。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "ok",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260924031244/https://www.techradar.com/pro/top-ai-researcher-says-ai-will-end-humanity-and-we-should-stop-developing-it-now-but-dont-worry-elon-musk-disagrees"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "shear",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Emmett Shear",
      "label_ja": "エメット・シアー",
      "value": null,
      "low": 0.05,
      "high": 0.5,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-11",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html",
      "confidence": "low",
      "note_en": "Range of 5–50%; counted at its midpoint with low weight.",
      "note_ja": "5〜50%という幅。中央値を低い重みで使用。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251030153324/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "leike",
      "category": "expert",
      "label_en": "Jan Leike",
      "label_ja": "ヤン・ライケ",
      "value": null,
      "low": 0.1,
      "high": 0.9,
      "horizon": "unspecified",
      "date": "2023-07",
      "url": "https://www.fastcompany.com/90994526",
      "confidence": "low",
      "exclude": true,
      "note_en": "Range of 10–90% is too wide to use; listed for reference only.",
      "note_ja": "10〜90%は幅が広すぎるため計算には使わず、参考として掲載。",
      "live": false,
      "link": {
        "status": "blocked",
        "archive": null
      }
    }
  ],
  "generatedAt": "2026-11-03T15:32:18.762Z",
  "definition": {
    "en": "Probability that AI causes human extinction or a comparably permanent catastrophe (e.g. permanent disempowerment of humanity). Most sources use a horizon of about 2100; differences are noted per source.",
    "ja": "AIが人類の絶滅、またはそれに匹敵する取り返しのつかない破局（人類の恒久的な無力化など）を引き起こす確率。多くの出典は2100年ごろまでを対象とし、違いは出典ごとに記載。"
  }
}